The second year of the revamped UEFA Champions League brought a wild finish to the league phase, with 18 matches kicking off simultaneously. Amid the chaos and fervor, one storyline emerged that epitomized the drama of the day.
Real Madrid entered the final day in a promising position to secure a top-eight finish and secure a direct spot in the knockout stage against a Benfica team that was facing elimination. However, the narrative took a complete twist—Benfica produced an astonishing 4-2 upset, capped off by a red card for Real Madrid’s Raul Asencio and an unexpected final goal from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin. Coached by former Madrid manager Jose Mourinho, Benfica made a surprising entry into the knockout stage playoffs while Real Madrid now faced the uncertainty of needing to win in two additional games to guarantee their advancement.
This sets a compelling stage for a rematch in just three weeks. For Benfica, this is a bittersweet reward following their significant effort, while Real Madrid sees a golden opportunity to make amends for their loss during Matchday 8.
How to watch Benfica vs. Real Madrid, odds
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 16 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Estadio da Luz — Lisbon, Portugal
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Benfica +280; Draw +290; Real Madrid -115
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“They are wounded,” Mourinho commented ahead of the match, “and a wounded king is dangerous. We will approach the first leg with our heads, ambition, and confidence. We know what we achieved against the kings of the Champions League … Real Madrid is a storied club with history, knowledge, and ambition. The only parallel is that we are both giants. Beyond that, there is no comparison. But football has its own unpredictability, and we can win.”
These circumstances may also lead Mourinho to adjust his tactics compared to their last encounter. Benfica was unusually aggressive in their previous win over Los Blancos, driven by the necessity to score. However, strategy tends to shift in two-legged matchups. A team might adopt a more defensive posture to stifle the opponent’s creativity, something Mourinho has been known to implement effectively. Benfica’s dynamic approach on Matchday 8 deviated from their usual style established since Mourinho’s appointment after a loss to Qarabag—averaging 14.1 shots per game and 1.5 expected goals, they recorded a remarkable 22 shots with 3.01 expected goals on that occasion. Despite conceding a few goals, Benfica has generally shown solidity defensively, allowing just 10.1 expected goals from non-penalties across eight games.
The central question remains: Can this current version of Real Madrid penetrate a resilient defense? Their inconsistency makes it challenging to predict, but their attacking capability is impressive. They rank within the top five in the Champions League for both goals scored (21) and expected goals (18.99), which somewhat masks their ongoing issues. This is particularly significant since the departure of Xabi Alonso in January, who was working to establish a better balance in the team’s setup. Under the guidance of Alvaro Arbeloa, Real Madrid has transitioned into a formation where Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior occupy the field simultaneously, sheltering unresolved questions around their compatibility.
In both La Liga and the Champions League, Real Madrid’s natural attacking prowess keeps them in contention for trophies. Mbappe is enjoying a standout season with 39 goals across all competitions, while Vinicius has stepped up under Arbeloa, contributing four goals and two assists in his last seven appearances. Together, as individual forces, they create significant challenges for Benfica’s defense in the coming weeks.
Adding to their arsenal, Real Madrid is bolstered by the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who made his first start since December in their 4-1 victory against Real Sociedad. His presence enriches the team’s attacking options, which have occasionally leaned too heavily on Mbappe’s capabilities. With an assist in his latest appearance, the England international has uniquely creative qualities that enable him to initiate plays from almost any position on the pitch.
Despite their shortcomings, Real Madrid finds itself with an opportunity to shake off a significant defeat. How they handle the lingering issues may well determine their pursuit of further silverware.
