Michael Carrick has undeniably made a significant impact on Manchester United’s trajectory, successfully guiding the team as a caretaker manager. This has led to discussions about whether his performance can be compared to that of Ruben Amorim, who was dismissed in January while the club was positioned sixth in the league. Since Carrick stepped in, United has surged to third place, making his potential candidacy for the permanent managerial role a topic of much debate.
Despite United’s improved league standing during Carrick’s tenure, a closer examination of performance metrics suggests that his results might not be as favorable as they seem. Over their respective first 12 matches, Carrick has recorded 26 points, outpacing Amorim, who amassed 18 points. However, beneath the surface, the underlying performance indicators raise questions about Carrick’s effectiveness.
xG per game
The Expected Goals (xG) metric is a polarizing statistic, often used to evaluate the quality of chances a team creates. Under Carrick, United averages an xG of 1.37 per game in the Premier League. In contrast, Amorim’s final 12 games saw the team achieve a higher average xG of 1.70, signaling that they were generating more significant goal-scoring opportunities during his time.
xG against per game
On the defensive side, Carrick’s squad appears to be conceding more high-danger chances. The average xG against per game is 1.30 under Carrick, compared to just 1.16 during Amorim’s last 12 matches. This disparity suggests that while Carrick’s team has improved the points total, they may be more vulnerable in defense.
Goals per game
When evaluating performance through the lens of goals scored, the numbers favor Amorim’s management. Manchester United netted 23 goals during Amorim’s final 12 league matches, leading to an impressive average of 1.92 goals per game, whereas Carrick’s squad has scored 22 goals in the same span, averaging slightly lower at 1.83 goals per game.
Big chances created per game
A further breakdown reveals that, under Carrick, United creates an average of 2.58 big chances per game. However, the data shows that Amorim’s final games were more prolific in this regard, with an average of 2.75 big chances created per game, highlighting a potential shortfall in Carrick’s approach to attacking play.
Average possession per game
While possessing the ball does not guarantee victories, it can certainly influence outcomes. Carrick’s side has edged slightly ahead in possession with an average of 50.58% across 12 league matches. Amorim’s tenure, however, saw a more dominating average possession rate of 55.00%, suggesting a more controlled and assertive style of play.
Touches in opponent’s box per game
The distribution of possession plays a crucial role in dictating match outcomes. Carrick’s team averages 24.17 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, while Amorim’s final 12 matches averaged 29.25 touches. This decline reflects a reduction in creating close-range scoring opportunities under Carrick’s leadership.
In conclusion, while Carrick’s influence may have inspired a sense of renewal within Manchester United, the quantitative statistics suggest that his start may not outshine the performance levels set by Amorim. Despite Chelsea’s struggles aiding United’s rise in the standings, the club must carefully weigh the evidence before making a long-term decision regarding Carrick’s future as manager.
